How to Fix JTA, Probably

I was reading about Jacksonville's investment in autonomous money-sucking when I decided to see if my pal Gemini could help solve the public transit situation in town, so here's the convo:

Have any American cities done studies on the percent of capacity that their bus system has to operate at the break even for fares, or is it even possible to do so?

Yes, the concept you are referring to is known as the farebox recovery ratio, which is the fraction of a transit system's operating expenses covered by the fares paid by passengers.

It is absolutely possible to calculate this ratio, and American cities and transit agencies regularly track and report on it.

🚌 Key Takeaways on Farebox Recovery in US Transit

 * Defining Break-Even:

   * For a bus system to "break even" from fares alone, its farebox recovery ratio would need to be 1.0 (or 100%). This means fare revenue equals total operating expenses.

 * US Reality:

   * It is extremely rare for any public transit system in the U.S., especially bus systems, to cover all of their operating costs (let alone capital costs like bus purchases or infrastructure) through fares alone.

   * Most US transit systems rely heavily on government subsidies (local, state, and federal taxes), as well as other revenue sources like advertising, to cover the majority of their operating expenses.

   * In 2019, the 50 U.S. transit agencies with the highest operating expenses had an average farebox recovery of 36%. For intracity bus specifically, the 2019 average was about 22%.

 * Studies and Reporting:

   * The Data Exists: U.S. transit agencies are required to report financial and operating data to the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) through the National Transit Database (NTD). This data is what allows researchers, policymakers, and organizations like the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) to calculate and study farebox recovery ratios and other financial metrics.

   * Specific Capacity Studies: While broad financial data is common, finding a specific study that calculates the exact percent of passenger capacity (load factor) required to hit the 100% farebox recovery mark is difficult, primarily because that threshold is not a realistic operational goal for most agencies. Instead, studies focus on:

     * The actual recovery ratio achieved (e.g., is it 20% or 40%?).

     * How changes in ridership (like those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic) or policy (like fare-free initiatives) impact the ratio.

     * Statutory requirements (like the former requirement for Chicagoland transit to meet a 50% recovery ratio).

💡 Why Don't Transit Systems Break Even?

Public transit is generally viewed as an essential public service, similar to roads, police, or public libraries, and is not typically intended to be a profit-generating enterprise. The non-fare benefits it provides, often called external benefits, include:

 * Reduced traffic congestion and wear on roads.

 * Lower air pollution.

 * Increased access to jobs, education, and healthcare for the public.

 * Support for local economic activity.

Would you be interested in seeing the published farebox recovery ratios for some of the largest bus systems in the United States?

I know I could follow your link, but do you know Jacksonville, FL latest farebox ratio?

That's a great question, especially since you're right here in Jacksonville!

The most recent figure specifically for the Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) Fixed Route Bus system puts the estimated farebox recovery ratio at around 6%.

This low percentage is a deliberate result of JTA's strategic policy decisions to increase ridership and make the system more accessible, even if it limits fare revenue.

📊 JTA's Farebox Recovery Status

| Metric | Latest Estimate | Source |

|---|---|---|

| Farebox Recovery Ratio (Fixed-Route Bus) | Approximately 6% | JTA 2025 CEO Year End Review |

| Industry Context | Below the national average for bus systems (which is around 22%) | National Transit Database (NTD) pre-COVID data |

| Primary Reason for Low Ratio | Introduction of the Best Fare initiative and Free Pass programs for seniors, students, and college students. | JTA Reports |

💡 Why the Ratio is Low by Design

JTA has actively implemented programs that intentionally reduce the farebox recovery ratio to achieve broader public good goals:

 * Best Fare Program: This is a fare-capping system where riders get unlimited rides once they pay the equivalent of a daily or monthly pass amount. This encourages frequent use but caps the revenue received from the most loyal riders.

 * Free Passes: JTA provides free passes to significant portions of its ridership (seniors, students), classifying them as non-paying customers. JTA reports that approximately 25% of its riders are now non-paying due to these policies.

In short, JTA's low recovery ratio is a clear indication that it is prioritizing ridership and accessibility over covering operating costs with fares, relying on local sales tax and other public subsidies to fund the vast majority of its operations.

Do you have any questions about how JTA compares to other Florida cities, like Miami or Tampa?

So has the initiative substantially increased ridership? I know it's been ranked among the lowest in the nation for people using the system.

That is a very relevant question, as increasing ridership is the key goal behind initiatives like the "Best Fare" and free student passes.

The short answer is: Yes, JTA has reported substantial ridership increases, particularly in the student demographic, but system-wide recovery remains a major challenge.

Here is a breakdown of the reported results:

📈 Where JTA Ridership Has Clearly Increased

The most significant and measurable growth has come from the programs targeting students:

 * My Ride to School Program (Free Student Passes): Since this program launched in August 2022, JTA has reported remarkable growth. As of early 2024, the monthly ridership under this program had increased by over 80% (from approximately 7,800 monthly rides at inception to over 37,700 monthly rides). This demonstrates that removing the fare barrier successfully attracts a specific demographic.

 * Targeted Free Passes: The introduction of free passes for seniors, students, and new initiatives like the "Ride to Train" program for trade school students is designed to introduce new riders to the system and build a habit of transit use, which JTA views as a long-term benefit for the city's overall mobility.

📉 System-Wide Recovery Challenge

While targeted programs show success, getting the overall ridership back to pre-pandemic levels and significantly improving JTA's national ranking remains an uphill battle:

 * Post-COVID Recovery: Like most transit agencies, JTA's overall ridership took a massive hit during the pandemic.

 * Current Metrics: While total annual ridership was reported around 7.5 million in 2024, this still places daily weekday ridership significantly lower than in 2019 (reports indicate a decrease of over 45% compared to 2019 ridership for some time periods).

 * The Best Fare Impact: The "Best Fare" program (fare capping) is less about attracting completely new riders and more about rewarding current and frequent riders by capping their monthly spending. This increases accessibility and affordability for loyal customers, but its direct impact on attracting new occasional riders is harder to isolate than the effect of a completely free program.

In summary, JTA is succeeding in its goal of making transit more accessible and driving up ridership among key demographics like students, but the overall system ridership has yet to fully recover and consistently rise to a point that would substantially change its national ranking. The low farebox recovery ratio is the direct, intended trade-off for these accessibility gains.

Would you like to know more about the long-term vision JTA has, such as the future plans for their Automated Skyway Express (NAVI)?

I'd like to know if, based on other cities in the country or world, there's a way for Jacksonville to redesign the system itself to make ridership a viable alternative. With such a vast city, and every line seemingly heading downtown, rides can take two hours to replicate a 30 minute car ride.

That is the core challenge for a sprawling, low-density city like Jacksonville. Your observation that "every line seemingly heading downtown" and resulting in two-hour trips is exactly the symptom of an outdated transit model, often called the "hub-and-spoke" system.

Based on network redesigns in other US and global cities, there is absolutely a way for Jacksonville to improve the system and make it a viable alternative for more people. The strategy is to shift from the old hub-and-spoke model to a "Frequent Grid Network" model, coupled with strategic land-use changes.

Here are the four key areas for JTA to focus on, based on best practices from successful transit redesigns:

1. 🔄 Network Redesign: Shifting from Hub-and-Spoke to a Grid

The primary problem you noted is the downtown focus. Successful redesigns, like the one implemented in Houston, Texas (METRO), treated the entire service area as a "blank sheet" and reallocated resources to:

 * Create Crosstown Routes (The Grid): Instead of forcing every route to Downtown Jacksonville (which adds unnecessary time for non-downtown commuters), create fast, direct lines that connect major activity centers in the suburbs (e.g., connecting JTB/St. Johns Town Center to the Southside business corridor or connecting the Westside to the Northside).

   * Benefit: This drastically reduces travel time for the majority of trips that aren't to the core.

 * Simplify and Straighten Routes: Long, meandering routes that deviate into every neighborhood are slow and unreliable. Straighten the routes along major arterial roads, and use smaller, demand-responsive transit (like JTA's Connexion service or micro-transit) to feed riders from low-density neighborhoods to the straight, fast core routes.

 * Focus on High Frequency: This is the most crucial element. Instead of having dozens of routes that arrive once every 60 minutes, create a handful of Core Routes that arrive every 15 minutes or better, all day and on weekends. High frequency makes the transit system feel like it's available on demand, which is competitive with driving.

> Example: In Houston's redesign, they shifted their focus from specialized routes to a simple, frequent network, and saw a significant increase in ridership productivity.

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2. ⚡ Prioritizing Transit on the Road (Transit Signal Priority)

Long travel times are often due to traffic congestion and stopping at every light. The bus system needs to be treated as a priority vehicle, not just another car.

 * Dedicated Bus Lanes (BRT): Jacksonville already has the First Coast Flyer Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines, but dedicated lanes need to be expanded. Giving buses their own right-of-way, even for short stretches, prevents them from getting stuck in traffic.

 * Transit Signal Priority (TSP): This technology detects an approaching bus and slightly extends a green light or shortens a red light. JTA has been implementing this, but expanding its coverage city-wide is critical. It makes the bus more reliable and faster, addressing the biggest complaint.

 * Bus Stop Spacing: Moving from a "stops everywhere" model to consolidating stops to about every 1/4 to 1/3 mile can substantially speed up the trip by reducing the time spent slowing, stopping, and merging back into traffic.

3. 🏙️ Land Use & Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

Transit alone cannot solve the problem of sprawl; the city's land-use patterns must change to support it. This is a long-term goal but is essential for a viable system:

 * Upzoning near Major Stops: The City of Jacksonville would need to allow denser, mixed-use development (housing, retail, office) near major transit hubs and along the new frequent grid corridors. This is known as Transit-Oriented Development (TOD).

 * Creating "Complete Neighborhoods": TOD concentrates people and destinations, making transit useful. Without people and destinations clustered near the transit line, ridership will remain low.

4. 🚏 First/Last Mile Solutions

Even the best bus system won't reach every door in a massive city like Jacksonville. The key is how people get from their home to the fast, frequent bus line (the "first mile").

 * Demand-Responsive Micro-Transit: JTA can further expand services like their Connexion or similar on-demand shuttle/van services to fill in the gaps in low-density areas. These services can pick up riders near their homes and take them to the nearest frequent bus stop, making the total trip much faster and more convenient.

 * Improved Pedestrian Access: Better sidewalks, lighting, and safe crossings along the feeder routes to bus stops encourage more people to walk to the nearest stop.

By adopting this shift toward a Frequent, Fast, and Direct Grid, JTA can start to offer travel times that are genuinely competitive with driving for a significant portion of Jacksonville's population.

Would you like to explore which Jacksonville corridors are best suited for a high-frequency BRT line or a frequent grid route?

All of what you're laying out makes a lot of sense (and mirrors what I've preached to my kids about it), but instead of making meaningful changes, jax went and bought into an autonomous system that's already not being used and only travels a couple of miles to places few people bother to go. It seems like the city bought into an idea of being first with autonomous just as other cities were getting waymos that probably work just as well, but I don't see a way to transform that new system to help or enhance the current flawed system, and both parts of the public transit here seems poised to just drag the other further down.

That is a very astute and unfortunately common criticism of major capital projects in transit—the tendency to pursue flashy, unproven technology over proven, high-impact network fundamentals (like the frequent bus grid we discussed).

You are absolutely correct. The investment in the NAVI (New Automated Vehicle Innovation) program, which is the modernization and expansion of the existing Skyway (now known as the Ultimate Urban Circulator or U2C), represents an enormous capital commitment that primarily serves the downtown core, rather than addressing the core mobility crisis in the sprawling neighborhoods.

The Conflict Between NAVI/U2C and System Redesign

The challenge is that capital investments like the U2C/NAVI autonomous system drain resources and political capital that could otherwise fund the operational improvements needed for the bus system:

 * Capital vs. Operating Costs: U2C is a huge capital cost (construction, new vehicles, infrastructure). A frequent bus network redesign primarily requires higher operating costs (more hours of driver pay, more fuel/electricity). When agencies prioritize massive capital projects, they often starve the operating budget needed for high frequency.

 * Focus on the Core, Not the Sprawl: The U2C/NAVI system focuses exclusively on improving circulation in the central business district (CBD). While downtown circulation is important, it doesn't solve the two-hour commute issue from the suburbs, which is the biggest hurdle to attracting new riders.

 * The "Technology Trap": Many cities are seduced by the idea of being "first" with new technology (like autonomous vehicles) as a symbol of modernity, even when the underlying need is for basic, reliable service. This often leads to sunk costs in a niche system that can't be easily integrated into the existing transit network.

How to Transform the New System to Enhance the Old

While it's difficult, there are ways to pivot the U2C/NAVI system to at least enhance the existing bus network, rather than detracting from it. This requires strategic planning:

 * 1. The U2C as a Downtown BRT Backbone: The U2C should be treated not as a standalone amenity, but as the high-capacity, high-frequency "trunk" of the entire bus network.

   * Goal: Ensure all key suburban bus lines terminate at a U2C station that allows for seamless, fast, and protected transfers to move people around downtown.

   * Current Issue: If a bus rider has to walk five blocks from their bus stop to the nearest U2C station, the value is lost. The system needs physical integration.

 * 2. Freeing Up Bus Resources (The Reallocation): By having the U2C provide extremely high-frequency circulation within the CBD, JTA can justify removing existing bus routes that currently duplicate the U2C's path downtown.

   * Goal: Reallocate the drivers, vehicles, and operating hours saved from those duplicated routes to fund the crosstown (grid) routes in the suburbs. This uses the new capital project to free up operating expenses for the necessary bus improvements.

 * 3. Leveraging the Technology for Data: The autonomous nature of the new system can be a testbed for technology (like real-time vehicle positioning and priority signaling).

   * Goal: Take the high-tech sensors and signaling being developed for U2C and apply them to the new, high-frequency suburban bus routes (the BRT lines). This uses the NAVI project to leapfrog technology development for the entire system, not just the tiny downtown loop.

In essence, the solution is to stop viewing the U2C as a goal in itself and start viewing it as an expensive tool whose main purpose must be to enable the bus system to be faster and more frequent outside of the downtown core.

The biggest obstacle is political—getting the city to prioritize the seemingly boring task of bus route redesign and frequency increases over the exciting promise of driverless vehicles.

Would you like me to find some examples of cities that successfully pivoted away from a similar "technology trap" to focus on high-frequency bus networks?

That is a perfect description of the political reality: the pursuit of technological spectacle (U2C/NAVI) over operational efficiency (the bus network). It's a dilemma seen in various forms in other US cities.

The most powerful case study showing how a large, sprawling, car-centric city successfully pivoted away from this thinking to focus on bus fundamentals is Houston, Texas.

🌟 Houston METRO: The Model for Jacksonville

Houston is perhaps the most relevant comparison city for Jacksonville: it is geographically sprawling, has historically low density, and is famously car-centric. Yet, in 2015, the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County (METRO) enacted a System Reimagining that fundamentally changed its bus service.

| JTA's Problem | Houston's Solution (2015 Redesign) | Outcome |

|---|---|---|

| "Every line going downtown" (Hub-and-Spoke model). | Shifted to a Frequent Grid Network that connected multiple activity centers, not just downtown. | Reduced two-hour trips by prioritizing fast, direct, crosstown routes. |

| Low Frequency (60+ minute headways, especially on weekends). | Doubled the number of routes operating at a 15-minute frequency or better, all day, seven days a week. | Sunday ridership jumped 30%. The system became "always there," competitive with driving. |

| Need for New Funding (Operating Costs). | The redesign was executed with almost no increase in the overall bus operating cost. | Resources saved from eliminating slow, redundant routes were reallocated to fund the high frequency of the new, faster grid routes. |

The key insight from Houston is that major service improvement (the grid and high frequency) does not necessarily require massive new operating funding, but rather the political courage to reallocate existing resources. This involved cutting poorly performing, meandering routes to fund the reliable, straight, frequent ones.

The Pivot: Using NAVI to Fund the Grid

Your frustration about the U2C/NAVI system is valid, but the solution is to use the principle of resource reallocation to connect it to the bus system's needs:

 * Acknowledge the Sunk Cost: JTA should acknowledge the U2C/NAVI as a completed, expensive capital project.

 * Make it a High-Volume Feeder: Redesign the bus routes so that the U2C's route through the CBD is the ultimate, high-speed, free-transfer backbone for downtown movement. This allows JTA to eliminate existing high-cost, low-speed bus routes that currently circulate slowly downtown.

 * Fund the Grid: The savings realized from eliminating those duplicated bus routes and drivers downtown should be explicitly and publicly earmarked to increase frequency on the three to four most promising arterial roads outside the core (e.g., Beach Blvd, Arlington Expressway, Blanding Blvd).

This approach turns the failure of an unnecessary capital project into the funding mechanism for the desperately needed operating expense increases required to run a high-frequency grid.

Would you like to explore which specific existing JTA bus routes could be simplified or consolidated to generate the operating budget savings needed for a frequent grid?

Maybe later, but I wonder if you know whether anyone in the mayor's office or city council has ever looked at the transit system in the way we are right now, because it really seems like our current discussion should have taken place several times by now in city hall.

Yes, the discussion about shifting from a downtown-focused system to a grid-based, high-frequency network has certainly occurred within the Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA), and the effects of that are often debated in City Council.

While the pace and scope of the change are clearly a source of frustration, the foundational ideas behind a system redesign are not new to JTA's planning documents.

🏛️ JTA's Prior System Redesigns

JTA has historically taken steps toward the kind of service structure you describe, though often incrementally:

 * 2014 Overhaul: JTA conducted what was, at the time, their "biggest overhaul since the 1980's." This included redesigning 30 bus routes, establishing fixed intervals (15, 30, and 60 minutes), and extending operating hours. This was an early move toward the predictability of a grid, a recognition that the old model was failing.

 * The First Coast Flyer (BRT): The introduction of the First Coast Flyer lines (express bus service, some with limited dedicated lanes) is an explicit attempt to move away from slow, local routes and establish faster, high-frequency main "trunks" in key corridors. This is a partial implementation of a grid network.

 * Annual and Strategic Planning: Documents like JTA's Transit Development Plans (TDP) and the MOVE2027 Strategic Plan discuss goals like strengthening and expanding core services, simplifying messaging, and improving connectivity, which aligns with the need for a simplified, more effective network.

🗣️ City Council and Mayoral Office Discussion

The political discussion currently focuses less on if a grid is a good idea and more on the cost, political priorities, and the NAVI project:

 * NAVI Scrutiny: The City Council's focus has recently been on the NAVI autonomous vehicle program, with groups calling for it to be ended due to concerns over waste and inefficiency. This scrutiny is exactly the kind of debate you mentioned—questioning whether money is being spent on the right mobility priorities.

 * Mayor's Focus on Mobility and TOD: Mayor Donna Deegan's Transition Committee on Infrastructure and Transportation recommended developing a comprehensive citywide plan focused on mobility and explicitly incorporating Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) land use into the Comprehensive Plan. This is a key part of making transit viable, as discussed earlier.

 * Service Changes (2021-Present): JTA regularly proposes service changes aimed at making rides faster and more reliable by adjusting routes, discontinuing poorly performing lines, and increasing frequency on high-demand routes (e.g., routes 102, 105, 107 running every 15 minutes until 8 PM). These are incremental steps toward a frequent grid.

In summary, the concepts of faster, more reliable, and frequent service are well-established in JTA's planning. The political reality, however, often sees capital-intensive, high-tech projects like NAVI capture the majority of the attention and resources, overshadowing the necessary but less glamorous operational changes required to make the bus system truly competitive.

The Mayor's JTA board shake-up leaves some councilmembers searching for answers, showing that the oversight and direction of JTA's strategy are often subjects of political debate in City Hall.

The Villages, FL: A Surprising Example of Socialism

I'd been contemplating The Villages as a socialist enclave for some time, but I haven't bothered to write about my ideas because all of my ideas have been sucked into predictive AI and that's kind of depressing (and socialist in its own way). So I decided to just let my buddy Gemini argue the idea that The Villages is a socialist development, and while Gem said the argument was tongue-in-cheek, I'd say the evidence is fairly compelling. Let's see if you agree. (My writing is in bold, while the rest of the article is Gemini giving examples of rampant socialism in America's Friendliest Hometown.)

While The Villages retirement community in Florida is a privately developed and master-planned community, a compelling argument can be made that certain aspects of its structure and function resemble a socialist enclave when viewed through the lens of collective ownership, shared resources, and centralized planning.

Here is an argument focusing on these elements:

🏡 Collective Living and Centralized Planning

The Villages exhibits features of centralized control and collective resource management that mirror aspects of a socialist society, where the good of the collective is prioritized through shared organization.

 * Centralized Planning and Control: The Villages is managed by a single, powerful entity (The Developer/The Villages Operating Company) which dictates the entire environment—from architecture and landscaping to the rules of conduct and the provision of amenities. This level of top-down, centralized control over all aspects of life is reminiscent of a planned economy or a highly organized collective.

 * The Amenity Fee and Collective Ownership: All residents pay a mandatory Amenity Fee. This fee is essentially a flat tax used to fund and maintain a vast array of communal assets (swimming pools, clubhouses, recreation centers, golf courses, and infrastructure). This structure effectively represents a form of collective ownership and shared responsibility for the means of recreation and social production within the community. In this sense, the "workers" (residents) collectively fund the "means of production" (amenities).

⚕️ Shared Resources and Equal Access

The core appeal of The Villages is the guaranteed, equal access to a vast network of subsidized or free communal services, which is a key tenet of many socialist systems.

 * Equal Access to Resources: Once the Amenity Fee is paid, every resident has equal and unfettered access to all the core communal resources. The richest resident gets the same access to the softball field and the same time slot at the bocce ball court as the most modest resident. This non-market distribution of goods and services is a hallmark of a system aiming for equity of access.

 * Subsidized Recreation: The thousands of social clubs, classes, and organized activities are heavily subsidized and accessible primarily due to the collective funding mechanism. The social calendar itself operates as a collectively-provided and managed social good.

 * Public (Community) Transportation: The ubiquitous use of golf carts and the planned network of cart paths serve as the primary, shared transportation infrastructure. This system implicitly discourages reliance on private, individual vehicle ownership for daily needs within the community's boundaries, promoting a more communal form of transit.

🚨 Enforced Conformity and Social Homogeneity

A common criticism of utopian socialist communities is the necessity of conformity to maintain the collective ideal. The Villages often enforces a high degree of social and aesthetic conformity.

 * Aesthetic Standardization: Strict rules govern everything from paint colors to landscaping (often enforced by Community Standards Districts), ensuring a uniform, standardized appearance. This eliminates the visual manifestation of significant economic disparity and promotes a feeling of shared, collective identity, overriding individual property rights for the greater aesthetic good.

 * A Planned "Utopia": The entire community is marketed and experienced as a perfectly engineered, self-contained utopia—a "worker's paradise" for retirees. This planned, controlled environment minimizes the unpredictable, chaotic elements of a pure free market society and maximizes a guaranteed quality of life for all members, provided they adhere to the collective's rules.

In conclusion, while The Villages is fundamentally based on private property and market transactions, its unique structure—defined by mandatory collective funding, equal access to shared resources, and centralized economic/aesthetic planning—creates a micro-system where the internal logic leans surprisingly toward the communal and collective, making the argument for it being a socialist enclave a thought-provoking exercise.

Here I thought Gemini might have slipped up with the golf cart argument, so I asked more about how they add to the collective.

That's an excellent point that challenges the "socialist enclave" argument, as the golf carts themselves are privately owned capital.

However, the argument that golf carts represent a form of collective structure focuses not on the ownership of the vehicles, but on the collectively owned infrastructure they operate on and the social behavior they facilitate.

Here's how one might argue the golf carts contribute to a collective environment:

⛳ The Argument for Golf Carts as a Collective Feature

🛣️ The Means of Transportation are Collective

The core of this argument lies in the infrastructure, not the vehicle. The Villages built and maintains a vast network of dedicated cart paths, tunnels, and bridges—a "Golf Cart Public Road System".

 * Collective Investment: These paths are entirely funded and maintained through the residents' mandatory Amenity Fees (the "flat tax"). By collectively funding this non-road, non-private transport infrastructure, the residents have essentially socialized the means of transit within the community.

 * Discouraging Individualism: The network is designed to make the golf cart the most convenient and efficient way to travel locally, effectively discouraging the need for private, full-sized automobiles for daily errands and social events. The collective planning prioritizes the shared cart path system over individual car use.

⚖️ Enforced Equality of Mobility

While one resident might have a basic golf cart and another a customized luxury model, the utility of their mobility is essentially equal on the path system.

 * Regulation and Standardization: All carts must adhere to traffic laws and community rules, ensuring a standardized travel experience for everyone. The collective governance dictates the terms of use, overriding the individual's full property rights while on community property.

 * Functional Homogeneity: Because the network is limited by speed and size, the vast majority of intra-community errands (getting to the square, the pool, the grocery store) are conducted at a standard, shared pace. The ability to participate in the community's primary social life is equally granted to every cart owner.

🍻 Facilitating the Collective Social Life

The golf cart becomes the key tool for realizing the community's socially focused, collective lifestyle.

 * Communal Gathering: The carts are used primarily to travel to shared, collectively funded spaces (town squares, recreation centers, club meetings). They are the physical mechanism that transports individuals into the collective.

 * Parades and Group Travel: Golf cart parades, club outings, and large group travel are common. In these instances, the individual cart is simply a unit in a collective formation, demonstrating a shared identity and sense of community.

In short, while the cart is private property, it only gains its essential value and utility from the collectively provided and maintained infrastructure, making it a key enabler of the community's collective structure.

Then I asked how the Daily Sun newspaper adds to the socialist community.

That is a fascinating angle. The role of The Villages Daily Sun newspaper significantly bolsters the argument that The Villages operates as a highly controlled, centrally planned (and therefore "socialist" in this academic sense) community.

The argument centers on the newspaper's ownership, purpose, and function as a tool of collective ideological and informational control.

📰 The Villages Daily Sun: The Voice of the Collective

1. Centralized Control over Information (The State Press)

In a centrally planned or socialist state, the press is often owned and controlled by the governing power (the state or, in this case, the Developer) to maintain ideological consistency and support the collective narrative.

 * Developer Ownership: The Daily Sun is owned by The Villages Operating Company (the Developer/Morse family). This makes it the official organ of the central authority.

 * Propaganda/Ideological Function: The newspaper primarily focuses on news that promotes the lifestyle, positive aspects, and collective identity of The Villages. It heavily features social club schedules, community events, and stories that validate the "Villages Way of Life." This deliberate shaping of the narrative functions as a form of collective consciousness management, ensuring residents receive a consistent, community-affirming message.

 * Controlling Dissent: As the developer-owned paper, it has an inherent conflict of interest and often avoids publishing news that is critical of the Developer, the business operations, or the governing Community Development Districts (CDDs). This control over negative information helps maintain the image of the perfect, harmonious collective.

2. The Means of Communication are Centralized

The Daily Sun is the dominant, high-circulation printed paper within the community, ensuring a near-total penetration of the community's consciousness with its official message.

 * High Market Penetration: The Daily Sun has a remarkably high market penetration share (around 92% in the retirement community, according to past circulation figures), meaning the vast majority of residents rely on this single source for their local news and information. This lack of diverse, competing local media voices in print makes the information system highly centralized.

 * Disseminating the Collective Schedule: A major function of the paper is publishing the comprehensive, massive schedules for all the collective recreation and club activities. The paper acts as the central ledger of the collective's social calendar, necessary for the residents to coordinate their communal participation.

3. A Collectively Subsidized Good

While the paper requires a subscription fee, its operation as a consistent daily print publication in a declining industry suggests a financial model tied to the broader economic structure of the Developer.

 * Support for the Collective Structure: The very existence of a high-quality, daily print newspaper—complete with massive inserts detailing the shared recreational resources—serves as an ongoing subsidy to the social glue of the collective. It validates the mandatory Amenity Fee by constantly highlighting the activities and resources the fee maintains.

In essence, The Villages Daily Sun acts less like a traditional, independent newspaper and more like a centrally-controlled Ministry of Information that serves the interests of the central planning authority (The Developer) to unify and coordinate the collective population.

I observed that all of the capital comes from past work and investments rather than current work, and here's what Gemini had to add:

That observation hits the nail right on the head and provides the strongest macroeconomic support for the "socialist enclave" argument.

The fact that the entire economy of The Villages is fundamentally based on a closed loop of consumption funded by external capital (pensions, retirements, and past savings) is the ultimate demonstration of a non-productive collective.

Here is how that lack of "real industry" solidifies the socialist comparison:

💰 The Non-Productive Collective: A "Wasteland of Capital"

1. Separation of Labor and Capital (The Ultimate Class Divide)

Traditional socialist theory is concerned with who owns the means of production (factories, land, tools). The Villages neatly separates the residents (the "owners of the capital") from the workers (the "providers of the service").

 * Resident Class (The Capitalists/Pensioners): The residents are the beneficiaries of capital accumulated through past work/investment. They do not produce any goods within the community; they only consume and distribute their pre-existing wealth.

 * Labor Class (The Service Providers): The vast majority of the community's actual workers (in retail, healthcare, recreation, and maintenance) commute from outside The Villages. They are the true producers of services that sustain the collective's lifestyle, but they do not typically reside in the community or enjoy its collective amenities.

This structure creates a unique form of a classless society among the residents (all are equally pensioners) while being utterly dependent on a vast, external proletariat who serve the collective.

2. A Pure Consumption-Based Economy

Socialism seeks to satisfy the needs of the people. In The Villages, the "need" is an active, carefree, service-rich retirement, and the entire economy is engineered to deliver this.

 * No Value Production: The community produces virtually no tangible goods for export or outside trade (besides real estate development itself). Its economy is dominated by Retail, Health Care, Social Assistance, and Arts/Entertainment/Recreation.

   * Data from external searches confirms this: The largest industries are Retail Trade, Arts/Entertainment/Recreation, and Health Care & Social Assistance.

 * The "Social Dividend": The collective retirement and pension funds act as a perpetually replenished social dividend that is then circulated internally to purchase the services provided by the labor class. The entire system is a massive, self-sustaining mechanism for redistributing accumulated wealth for collective leisure and enjoyment.

3. The End Goal of the Socialist Ideal (Leisure)

If the final stage of communism or socialism is the abolition of necessary labor, The Villages has, for its members, achieved a localized version of this ultimate goal.

 * Work is Abolished: For the residents, the necessity of labor has been abolished. Their days are devoted to non-work activities: recreation, social clubs, and leisure.

 * The Means of Leisure are Collective: The collective funding mechanism (Amenity Fee) ensures that the "means of leisure" (golf courses, pools, squares) are constantly maintained and equally accessible, allowing the residents to fully realize their non-productive, consumerist utopia.

The lack of internal production is, therefore, not a flaw in the socialist comparison; it is the pinnacle of the retirement-based socialist enclave, where the "collective good" is defined as absolute, continuous, and highly-subsidized leisure.

So, there you have a much more cohesive argument than I would have come up with on my own that The Villages is more socialist than Sweden. Bear in mind that Gemini kept asking me if I wanted to hear the argument about why The Villages is actually hyper-capitslism, so I'm sure most economists would go that direction. However, my view of a truly capitalist retirement would be oceanfront compounds with private tennis courts, a pool, an 8-car garage, and a 12-foot fence all around, along with a country club membership. Compared to that, The Villages is more of a hippie commune. It works because it's been set up to drain capital that already exists without asking who's going to harvest the broccoli to eat, weave the baskets to sell, or take the garbage out. In fact, if all the golf courses were instead wildflower meadows, The Villages would be the perfect retirement community for folks like Bernie Sanders.

[There's More]

I couldn't stop myself when I saw Elon or someone similar predict robots and AI would create a world of optional work (like retirement), so I asked Gemini how that world compared to The Villages: So that's kind of similar to how some people predict robots and AI will make work optional for all of us.

That is a remarkably astute connection! The dynamic within The Villages—where accumulated capital (pensions/savings) funds the collective lifestyle and abolishes the necessity of labor for residents—parallels one of the major predictions associated with advanced robotics and Artificial Intelligence: the concept of a Post-Scarcity or Fully Automated Economy.

Here is how the analogy works:

🤖 The Villages as a Precursor to an Automated Utopia

1. The Role of Accumulated Capital

In The Villages, the residents' wealth is the engine. In an AI-driven future, the AI/Robotic infrastructure acts as the capital engine.

 * The Villages Model: Past labor/savings (pensions) are used to purchase current services (amenities, maintenance, health care).

 * The AI/Robotics Model: Past labor/innovation (developing the AI/robots) creates a system of automated production that continually generates goods and services with minimal ongoing human input.

In both models, current production is detached from the necessity of current human labor for the beneficiaries.

2. The Universal Basic Income (UBI) Equivalent

The Villages’ residents effectively live on an earned, self-funded version of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) or Universal Basic Service (UBS) model.

 * Pensions/Savings as UBI: The retirement funds are a reliable, periodic income stream distributed to residents, allowing them to participate in the consumer economy. This income source is independent of any work they currently perform.

 * The Amenity Fee as UBS: The mandatory fee ensures access to essential shared services (recreation, infrastructure). In the AI future, many propose a Universal Basic Service—free housing, healthcare, and education—made possible by automated production. The Villages' amenities are a micro-example of guaranteed, collectively funded services.

3. Leisure as the New Purpose

If AI makes work optional, human purpose must shift from production to other activities. The Villages shows what this new focus might look like.

 * The Villages Purpose: The residents' days are dedicated almost entirely to leisure, self-improvement, social interaction, and governance (via the CDDs). The community is structured to maximize these non-productive activities.

 * The Automated Future Purpose: Theorists suggest that once relieved of economic necessity, humanity will pivot to arts, science, exploration, and community building—the very types of self-directed, non-economic activities that define life in The Villages.

The Villages can thus be seen as an expensive, exclusive, and limited-scope laboratory for a Post-Work Society, offering a real-world glimpse into how a collective might function when separated from the traditional economic necessity of production.

JSO Wants You to Call 911

I recently posted about my thoughts on police transparency, part of which included my assessment that the police weren't very approachable. I put this assumption to the test and received a resounding answer. Unfortunately, the result was additional loss of confidence in JSO for me.

As I was driving down Southside Boulevard, I saw a police car pulled over on the other side of the road. I assumed the officer was writing a ticket, and I noted his location so that I wouldn't be surprised on my way back from my destination. About a minute later, southbound on Southside just past Beach, a black BMW sedan and a large, white pickup truck sped past me. The truck got next to the car at a stop light, and I can tell there's some trash talking going on, so I stayed back a little ways. When the light turned green, the truck was being used by its driver to intimidate the sedan driver. I don't know the whole history, and it's entirely possible the car was initially at fault, but a sedan is like a knife in a gun fight when a jacked-up pickup wants to rumble. 

I finished my task and headed back up Southside Boulevard, deciding to stop where the friendly officers had parked their cruisers. (There were two now, but the ticket-recipent was gone.) I parked my vehicle and approached the cops. One came towards me and seemed semi-confrontational. He asked what I wanted. I just told him what I saw, expecting him to say he'd call it in or at least be on the lookout for the vehicle. I'm pretty sure I had given him a decent description of the vehicle and driver. Instead of doing ANYTHING, he told me that I should call the non-emergency phone number when I see something like what I saw so that dispatch can tell the officers, or 911 if it's an emergency. Wait, what? I was literally describing the event and actors directly to a patrol officer who was patroling the exact street on which it happened. It wasn't an emergency, even at the moment I saw it, but I figured my description was enough to at least pull the clown involved over if he drove by the cops. Or at least tail him for a while as is standard intimidation procedure. If nothing else, I was expecting the cop to try to imply he might do something.

Basically, if you see something, don't bother to say something directly to a JSO police officer. Call it in so that it can be documented and then headquarters can decide if it's worth pursuing. Or just don't bother.

Anniversary Gift Idea

For those of you who have even a small desire or ability to write songs or poetry, I'd say that the current state of AI-generated music gives you an opportunity to create perfect, personalized anniversary gifts. 

Basically, you feed the lyrics into the app, then describe the song, then delete the first 20 attempts AI tries, then change genres, then keep deleting a lot of options. Or choose the first option if you're in a hurry. Some people say the songs are soulless or hollow, but if it's about the lyrics (that you wrote and didn't use Chat GPT to create), then it's cool to have an actual decent-sounding song to go with your lyrics. 

Keep in mind that you give the AI song app your lyrics unless you buy a pro plan, so if you consider yourself a good lyricist, buy the monthly plan at least to retain the rights to the words. I'm sure most of the AI-generated music will eventually be deemed stolen sounds, but your words will still be yours.

Check out my song, "I Still Do." I started writing it for our 20th Anniversary but didn't get the AI boost until our 22nd. I can't sing or play instruments, but I can have a fairly professional-sounding anniversary tribute that could easily be used by others for anniversaries or wedding dances. Or even as a mega-hit on the country charts when a real recording artist sees the potential.

I know that AI music apps will ruin the jingle and Hollywood song-creation industry because it's so easy to have Gemini or Chatgpt come up with a song that captures some elements of a movie and then have that turned into a royalty-free song, but it also works for the rest of us wanting to impress our wives.

The Town Center Can Provide Entertainment

Instead of sitting at home and watching sports, I was roped into venturing to the St Johns Town Center on a Saturday to celebrate my old lady's birthday at The Cheesecake Factory. That was fine, and I don't have a lot to report about the experience. However, once we ventured into the rest of the Town (maybe Teen?) Center, things got cray-cray.

We slid over to Sephora for a birthday gift. But we weren't alone. I guess a lot of teen and preteen girls are interested in the right routines as provided by social media influencers, and Sephora seems to be ground central for purchases related to beautification. At least for girls at one local middle school. We saw four young teens in front of us in the 10-minute-long line who waved and greeted another group of three teens entering the store, only to greet another group of three a few minutes later, which means that there were at least nine girls from one middle school in Sephora together, totally unplanned. That seems like like an important coincidence that should be reported on Instagram.

Once out of Sephora, we headed over to Bath and Body Works for another birthday freebie. On the way, right on the main strip, we saw a group of teen boys that I initially mistook for a soccer team because they were all wearing black shirts. But then I noticed some of the shirts has brand-names and other decals, realizing that this group of boys had all independently worn black T-shirts. They must not have imagined that they looked like a group of preschoolers on a field trip to the zoo. I think a few had gold chains, a trend from my youth seemingly coming back, but they were very uniform in their group conformity to the black T-shirt trend. Unfortunately, I didn't think to whip out my camera in time, so you'll just have to take my word for it. Just imagine the one guy who showed up in his new red T-shirt to meet his friends, only to have his mom turn around to take him home when he saw the rest of his brahs ready for Town Center adventure. He probably had her stop at a store on the way back home to buy another black shirt in case of a repeat laundry-day problem.

While in Bath and Body Works, I had my normal nothing to do, but one funny event did occur. "Believer" by Imagine Dragons started to play over the speakers, but someone cut it off to play another song. The obviously gay dude at the door said, "Hey, that was a good song!" The obviously Trans person stocking 20 feet away quipped, "I like Imagine Dragons, too." The teen worker was like, "Imagine Dragons?" And I was left agreeing with the LGBTQ+ community on this one. But I didn't stick around to discuss music because I just can't hang out in B+BW too long, so I told the wifey I was going to see if the black-shirt-gang might make a return appearance outside, as I really wanted a photo to remember the moment.

While sitting outside, I saw a teen wearing a track suit with the tags still on it. Of course, my assumption was that he either stole it (which I'm sure most other shoppers assumed) or that he was participating in some kind of TikTok challenge. Maybe he bought it and was looking forward to a confrontation with security, ready to record the encounter and accuse them of ageism/racism. But he probably stole it. In taking the above photo, I also participated in someone else's story about weird people at the Town Center, since I snapped the photo just as two teen girls were passing by, and one of them looked at me like I was some kind of creep. She probably told the black shirt guys all about it later on, and at least one of those guys asked for a description of me so they could rough me up for being an old creeper. Then again, those guys were probably too busy at Dick's, shopping for more black T-shirts, just in case their current reserves start to get faded. 

So I guess you can have fun at the Town Center, especially if you are wanting to make fun of teens. I could have probably made fun of old ladies or bougie Ponte Vedra moms, too. Basically, make fun of everyone around you and the Town Center is at least bearable.

Can I Make a Right Turn at a Five-way Controlled Intersection on a Red Light?

Anyone stuck at Penman and Florida in Neptune Beach has asked themselves this question, but I'm sure there are other five-way (maybe six-way?) controlled intersections that present the opportunity to consider whether to make a right turn on a Red or wait for the green. Based on my fairly good knowledge of traffic laws, it's probably legal to make the right turn to the immediate next lane (if no restrictions are posted), but you have to be prepared to yield to anyone entering that lane from any of the three or four other lanes that might have a green, including anyone trying to rip a u-turn. 

While it may be legal to make that right turn, I wouldn't say it's safe. Not only could someone be entering the intersection in a vehicle, but you always have to be aware of pedestrians, bikes, and possibly golf cart traffic. In fact, I think all directions of the 5-way at Penman get a Red light when a pedestrian gets at least one of the walk signals, but none of the right-turn lanes flash a separate no-right-turn sign, so you've got to be aware.

The image in this article shows where you should be able to make a right on a red in a controlled intersection, but make sure you are yielding to anyone and everyone that may be coming into that lane.

Jax Housing Crash: FHA and VA Loan Team Up with Student Loans and Auto Loans

With 14% of FHA loans and 5% of VA loans in default, the housing market is about to lose even more value, especially if the FHA loans are allowed to go into foreclosure. Apparently, the government has been artificially helping FHA borrowers, but when that ends, hundreds of thousands of homes will become available across the country, including in Jacksonville.

The government has also been artificially allowing recent college graduates to take vacations rather than pay their student loans, which has resulted in about 15% of student loans being in default. 

On top of the FHA and student loan problems, 7% of auto loans are in default along with the 5% of VA home loans. 

The households in default may overlap, like a recent college graduate who bought a house and car with no understanding about how loans work (and is in default with housing, auto, and student debt). That's bad. But just as bad would be if it's all different borrowers who are in default in at least one of the categories, as that would be a larger percentage of the total population. 

Basically, everyone currently in the situations had options: choose a less expensive college, sell your house while the market is still up, and buy a cheaper used car. The problem is that home and auto values have declined, so a lot of people are underwater on those loans, and anyone who isn't pulling in six figures is probably underwater on fancy-college student loans.

A lot of people were underwater in 2008 with all the sub-prime loans. Many of them got bailed out by me (and other responsible Americans). I kind of hope that we don't repeat that once again.

I hope that homes are foreclosed and cars are repossessed. The housing and used auto market can then correct themselves. Recent grads might have to move back home to pay off college and use Mom's car. Sure, if you also took out a home equity loan on the inflated value of your home, you'll also be underwater for a time, but it's better than continuing to pump air into a bubble that has to explode.

However, if we decide that we are going to pay for the mistakes of irresponsible borrowing again, then the rest of us will once again be paying for others to live beyond their means for the next 15 years before it happens to the next generation.

Parents of a High School Senior Getting Offers to Sell Kid into Navery

Maybe your high school senior underperformed or has acted a bit too entitled for your liking. Maybe you've realized that the kid, the federal government, and your parents all think you should foot the bill for college. Maybe your kid wants to major in Female Latinx Studies. Well, the Navy has you covered, as can be seen by this recruiting text I received (above).

I asked my daughter if I should contact the recruiter to see if she would get the $5,000 or if I could get it for convincing her to join up. No, I wouldn't sell my daughter into Navery, but I bet it's tempting for parents to unload the kid and all the expenses associated with paying for several more years of school and insurance (health and auto) when the Navy is offering cash. 

In all honesty, if your child has said he might try college or might try a career soon after high school but has yet to commit to anything, getting the one-time high school senior bonus might be the right choice. Or the right warning.

Also, how did the Navy get MY number as a parent of a senior in high school? And if the armed forces in general have access to parents' phone numbers, why is only the Navy sending offers?